The Times of Israel journalist Emanuel Fabian is claiming that Polymarket gamblers (sorry, “traders”) have threatened his life over a report he released about an Iranian missile attack on Israel on March 10. According to the rules, this bet resolves as true if Iran strikes Israel using a drone, a missile, or an air strike on this date. At issue here is this specific rule:
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.
On March 10, Fabian reported a single missile had hit an open area outside the Israeli city of Beit Shemesh; he included in the report a video of the strike. This would resolve the bet as “Yes”. Evidently, holders of “No” shares would very much like him to change his report to say that the missile was intercepted, which would resolve the bet as “No”, according referenced above. This bet has seen more than 23 million USD in trading volume.
If you look at the vitriol in the comments of the bet on Polymarket, I have no trouble believing people would send threats to a journalist demanding him to change his story, whether out of desperation to change their fortunes or just in an attempt to be edgy.
While prediction markets profess a lofty goal of providing unbiased forecasts for real-world events, it seems more honest to describe them as enablers of degenerate gambling and horrifying insider trading. As unsavoury as it is to bet on wars or assassinations, Polymarket also lets its users place bets on events well within the control of ordinary people. During the (human-caused) Palisades Fire of January 2025, Polymarket took bets on whether the fires would spread to specific places. Despite Polymarket collecting no fees on bets related to that particular event, one could easily imagine what someone holding a lot of “Yes” shares might do to make sure their bet hits. Some people have already made a lot of money from other easily-influenced bets, such as whether sex toys will be thrown at the court during professional women’s baskeball games. And sometimes prediction markets lead to moments that are more bizarre but innocuous (unless you’re on the losing end of the bet), like Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong meme dumping at the end of an earnings call.
There is a good reason gambling has historically been tightly regulated, controlled, and geographically restricted. Now gambling through prediction markets is available everywhere and at all times in your pocket (not in Canada, thankfully). What began as an experiment for aggregating dispersed knowledge has become one more machine for the casinofication of public life.