A few more prediction market stories
The bad behaviour incentivized by prediction markets are a running theme on this blog, so I’m sharing a few links I’ve saved over the past few weeks in this vein:
- Polymarket criticized over ‘disgusting’ bets on fate of pilots on US jet shot by Iran: Polymarket took bets on the fates of American pilots shot down in Iran but took down the wager after criticism
- ‘Hairdryer or lighter?’: French police look at claim of sensor tampering to win weather bets: It sure looks like someone messed with the temperature sensor at Charles de Gaulle airport to win weather forecasting bets on Polymarket
- Why Almost Everyone Loses—Except a Few Sharks—on Prediction Markets: Why normal traders must lose on prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi
And another story to add to the toxic soup of insiders scamming the market: The insider trading suspicions looming over Trump’s presidency—oil futures traders keep front-running President Trump’s announcements related to the Iran war.